The Federal Government of Nigeria is preparing to formally close rice import windows after a national policy review revealed that imported rice not increased local output is responsible for the nation’s apparent rice surplus, even as Nigerian rice farmers continue to record losses.
The move comes amid growing concerns that ongoing emergency rice imports may be undermining local rice production, weakening domestic farmer incomes, and jeopardizing long-term food security.
Imports, Not Local Output, Behind Apparent Rice Surplus
At a second-cycle meeting convened by the Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit in Abuja, officials analyzed national food balance data for December 2025. The figures indicated a rice surplus of about 1.1 million metric tonnes — but the review emphasized that this surplus stemmed mainly from imported rice, not expanded domestic production.
Experts warned that continuing heavy import activity, especially when food inflation has dropped below 14%, is no longer justified and could undercut the competitiveness of local farmers.
Field surveys covering more than 33,500 farmers across 13 states revealed worrying trends from the 2025 wet season:
- Negative profit margins for rice and maize farmers, largely due to high production costs and collapsing prices.
- Market prices fell sharply after rice import windows were opened, forcing many producers to sell below cost.
- Producers lacked price protection mechanisms like a Guaranteed Minimum Price (GMP), exposing them to sharp declines.
- Some farmers are shifting from staples like rice to crops with better returns, such as soybean.
Projections show that more than 10% of rice farmers plan to reduce production further during the dry season — a trend that could threaten future supply and food availability.
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Food Security Risks Loom
Although a rice surplus is recorded on paper, stakeholders stressed that continued dependency on imports could produce future food gaps and inflationary pressures if local production weakens.
A panel of agriculture and food policy experts warned that Nigeria’s rice sector must be underpinned by local value-chain strength, not fleeting imports. Similar concerns were highlighted in other policy analyses that also recommend supporting domestic producers to safeguard food system resilience.
Policy Response and Next Steps
At the Abuja meeting, participants agreed on a set of policy actions aimed at stabilizing Nigeria’s rice market:
- Activate the National Food Reserve
The reserve would act as a market maker, supporting price stability and ensuring buffer stocks during production fluctuations.
- Introduce a Guaranteed Minimum Price (GMP)
A GMP would give farmers dependable pricing signals and protect incomes, encouraging higher production in upcoming seasons.
- Close Rice Import Windows
A technical memo recommending the formal closure of rice import windows will be submitted to the National Council on Agriculture and Food Security, then to the National Economic Council for approval.
Officials also reaffirmed the role of the National Agribusiness Policy Mechanism as Nigeria’s central coordination framework for aligning production, reserves, imports, and exports using data-driven planning.
For local farmers, millers and agribusiness entrepreneurs, these policy shifts signal a strategic pivot toward supporting domestic production and reducing dependency on imported staples
